Keep perceptions of crime in perspective
Published Sept. 22, 2013, in The Herald-Sun, Durham, NC
“What is wrong with our world? How many more mornings will I wake up to another random mass shooting or another individual on trial for killing their family?! I am just seriously sickened over what has occurred in our country with all these horrible shootings/killings.”
This was posted on my friend’s Facebook page on the morning of Aug. 31, the day the man identified as Terence Tyler shot and killed two co-workers at a suburban New Jersey supermarket before committing suicide. Comments on this post included “Lessons learned: Don’t go to work, the grocery store, or the movies” and “So, just don’t live your life and instead hole yourself up in your home and barricade yourself in because crazies also like to break into people’s homes and do horrible things!”
The fear and disgust expressed in these postings seem to reflect a common sentiment of late: that there is an alarming increase in violence across our nation and that something must be done before we spiral into chaos. Indeed, the Aug. 31 incident occurred on the heels of three other high-profile acts of violence: the Aug. 24 fatal shooting of a man near the Empire State Building in New York City by a former colleague identified as Jeffrey Johnson, 58, who was subsequently shot dead by police; the Aug. 5 attack on a Sikh temple in Wisconsin that left seven dead, including shooter Wade Michael Page, 40, who committed suicide after being wounded by police; and the July 20 movie theater shooting in Aurora, Colo., that killed 12 allegedly by 24-year-old James Holmes. Many more people have been injured in acts of violence in the past month.
In Durham, one man died from injuries sustained in an Aug. 23 shooting on Stadium Drive on the same day as an another, unrelated shooting that injured a high school student, and a Blockbuster employee is recovering after being robbed and shot Aug. 18. In Chapel Hill, the University of North Carolina campus is mourning a student who was found dead in her apartment Sept. 7. And in Raleigh on Sept. 10, a woman was shot and killed in a parking lot at the Cameron Village shopping center.
It’s true that we have seen several horrific acts of violence recently, but is our chance of victimization greater today than in the past? Certainly not. The truth is that most of us are extremely unlikely to become victims of violent crime, and even less likely to be victims of random acts of violence. Of course just one violent act is too many, but our nation is generally safer now than in the past.
The U.S. violent crime rate has been declining for quite some time. In 2010, the FBI recorded a rate of 403.6 violent crimes per 100,000 people, compared to 758.2 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 1991. During that same timeframe, the murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate fell by more than half, from 9.8 per 100,000 people in 1991 to 4.8 in 2010, and the rates of forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault also fell. The FBI’s preliminary results for 2011 indicate that this downward trend is continuing, and there is no evidence that the violent crime rate is increasing this year.
So where is the perception of escalating violence coming from? Partly, it’s explained by the proliferation of crime shows on TV, as well as the steep competition among news outlets that leads to more detailed and emotionally charged coverage of crime stories. But mostly what’s happening now is what happened during the alarm of the late 1990s and early 2000s concerning a supposed increase in school violence: Exposure to these acts increased. In fact, from 1992 to 2002, violent crime in schools dropped substantially, and there has been no dramatic increase in school violence since then. There was, however, a dramatic increase in reporting about school violence during that time.
This increased coverage is not just a product of the news media’s business interests. The occurrence of one notorious incident tends to increase the significance placed on subsequent similar incidents and, thus, the likelihood that they will make the news. Not only are we hearing story after story, detail after detail about the tragic movie theater shooting and Holmes’ subsequent court proceedings, but we are aware of more subsequent shootings than we otherwise would be in the absence of that infamous event.
Instead of skipping our daily activities or barricading ourselves in our homes, we need to keep our perceptions of crime in perspective. We should not allow our emotional reactions to the numerous stories about a few incidents control our lives. We should not cower in fear, but celebrate the gains we have made in crime prevention and investigation and continue to work toward the goal of becoming a more peaceful nation.
“What is wrong with our world? How many more mornings will I wake up to another random mass shooting or another individual on trial for killing their family?! I am just seriously sickened over what has occurred in our country with all these horrible shootings/killings.”
This was posted on my friend’s Facebook page on the morning of Aug. 31, the day the man identified as Terence Tyler shot and killed two co-workers at a suburban New Jersey supermarket before committing suicide. Comments on this post included “Lessons learned: Don’t go to work, the grocery store, or the movies” and “So, just don’t live your life and instead hole yourself up in your home and barricade yourself in because crazies also like to break into people’s homes and do horrible things!”
The fear and disgust expressed in these postings seem to reflect a common sentiment of late: that there is an alarming increase in violence across our nation and that something must be done before we spiral into chaos. Indeed, the Aug. 31 incident occurred on the heels of three other high-profile acts of violence: the Aug. 24 fatal shooting of a man near the Empire State Building in New York City by a former colleague identified as Jeffrey Johnson, 58, who was subsequently shot dead by police; the Aug. 5 attack on a Sikh temple in Wisconsin that left seven dead, including shooter Wade Michael Page, 40, who committed suicide after being wounded by police; and the July 20 movie theater shooting in Aurora, Colo., that killed 12 allegedly by 24-year-old James Holmes. Many more people have been injured in acts of violence in the past month.
In Durham, one man died from injuries sustained in an Aug. 23 shooting on Stadium Drive on the same day as an another, unrelated shooting that injured a high school student, and a Blockbuster employee is recovering after being robbed and shot Aug. 18. In Chapel Hill, the University of North Carolina campus is mourning a student who was found dead in her apartment Sept. 7. And in Raleigh on Sept. 10, a woman was shot and killed in a parking lot at the Cameron Village shopping center.
It’s true that we have seen several horrific acts of violence recently, but is our chance of victimization greater today than in the past? Certainly not. The truth is that most of us are extremely unlikely to become victims of violent crime, and even less likely to be victims of random acts of violence. Of course just one violent act is too many, but our nation is generally safer now than in the past.
The U.S. violent crime rate has been declining for quite some time. In 2010, the FBI recorded a rate of 403.6 violent crimes per 100,000 people, compared to 758.2 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 1991. During that same timeframe, the murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate fell by more than half, from 9.8 per 100,000 people in 1991 to 4.8 in 2010, and the rates of forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault also fell. The FBI’s preliminary results for 2011 indicate that this downward trend is continuing, and there is no evidence that the violent crime rate is increasing this year.
So where is the perception of escalating violence coming from? Partly, it’s explained by the proliferation of crime shows on TV, as well as the steep competition among news outlets that leads to more detailed and emotionally charged coverage of crime stories. But mostly what’s happening now is what happened during the alarm of the late 1990s and early 2000s concerning a supposed increase in school violence: Exposure to these acts increased. In fact, from 1992 to 2002, violent crime in schools dropped substantially, and there has been no dramatic increase in school violence since then. There was, however, a dramatic increase in reporting about school violence during that time.
This increased coverage is not just a product of the news media’s business interests. The occurrence of one notorious incident tends to increase the significance placed on subsequent similar incidents and, thus, the likelihood that they will make the news. Not only are we hearing story after story, detail after detail about the tragic movie theater shooting and Holmes’ subsequent court proceedings, but we are aware of more subsequent shootings than we otherwise would be in the absence of that infamous event.
Instead of skipping our daily activities or barricading ourselves in our homes, we need to keep our perceptions of crime in perspective. We should not allow our emotional reactions to the numerous stories about a few incidents control our lives. We should not cower in fear, but celebrate the gains we have made in crime prevention and investigation and continue to work toward the goal of becoming a more peaceful nation.
